Raised Stakes on All Fronts
One of Hamas’s explicit aims in launching the October 7th attack was to drag the entire Middle East into a full-scale regional war, in which Israel would have to face an overwhelming number of active fronts. High up on the Hamas wish-list for escalation were Hezbollah in the north, Palestinians in the West Bank, and Arab communities in Israel. The first months of the war did not set off any such chain reaction. Even Hezbollah, which began firing into northern Israel at the very beginning of the war, showed relative restraint, far from the large-scale missile attacks on central Israel that Hamas called for.
The last few weeks have changed this equation. As the war in Gaza slows, the war with Hezbollah has significantly expanded, and the West Bank - rarely in the news, due to the headlines on the Lebanon-Israel border - is on the brink of a complete breakdown of order. While Hamas and Hezbollah have suffered significant losses in terms of personnel, their influence in Gaza, Lebanon, and (increasingly) the West Bank have only grown in the war. Meanwhile, Israel’s goals of returning the hostages and allowing tens of thousands of residents from the south and north to return home safely will not be possible without a diplomatic track to complement military gains.
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