The Day After Begins Now
Crossroads in the War: Ceasefire or Escalation?

This past month has seen rapid developments in all arenas, with continued international focus on the two-state solution increasingly translated into concrete steps and policies, the publication of PM Netanyahu's guiding principles for the "day after," further changes in the Palestinian Authority, and an ever-worsening situation on the ground for Gazan civilians. With mixed reports about the viability of hostage-prisoner negotiations, IDF plans to invade Rafah, and Ramadan on the horizon, the upcoming month will determine whether the war takes a turn towards further escalation or a pause in the fighting.  

This month’s Two State Index will examine:

  • The components - and missing pieces - of Netanyahu's proposal for the "day after" in Gaza;
  • Concrete moves by key international actors to pressure and incentivize the parties towards a two-state solution;
  • Developments in the Palestinian arena;
  • The challenges and choices that March will bring, with the potential for a significant escalation or abatement of the violence.  

As a result of parameter changes analyzed below, the Two-State Index decreased by 0.6%, dropping from 5.18 to 5.15.